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房地产2019金九银十未现机构2020承压前行涨跌并存
2020-01-08 01:26  www.equintos.com

  过去的一年里,全国房地产市场上下波动较为明显。上半年,部分城市出现楼市小阳春,土地市场渐热。下半年,多个城市随即出现“降温”,热门楼盘的售楼处打折忙促销。

Over the past year, the national real estate market up and down more obvious fluctuations. In the first half of the year, some cities appeared in the property market small spring, the land market is getting hotter. In the second half of the year, a number of cities immediately appeared \"cool down \", the sales of hot sales office sales busy sales promotion.

  同时,2019年也是调控密集的一年。中原地产统计数据显示,11月份,各地出台的房地产类调控高达72次,其中针对房地产资金链收紧的政策超过25次。1~11月,全国各地合计出台房地产调控高达554次,同比2018年同期的425次增加30%。

At the same time,2019 is also a regulatory intensive year. Central Plains real estate statistics show that in November, the introduction of real estate regulation as high as 72 times, including the real estate funds chain tightening policy more than 25 times. From January to November, all over the country issued a total of 554 real estate regulation and control, compared with the same period in 2018 425 times an increase of 30%.

  展望2020年,我们邀请到房企和研究机构的专业人士,来探讨中国房地产市场所处的外部环境与内部发展阶段,总结行业与市场运行的新特征,为了解当前房地产市场的发展提供不一样的思考。他们分别是:中原地产中国大陆区副总裁兼原萃总裁刘天旸,仲量联行高级董事姚耀,湖南省房地产业协会轮值会长湛稼勤,莱坊董事及上海北京研究及咨询部主管杨悦晨,高力国际华东区董事总经理沈寅,上海易居房地产研究院院长张永岳。

Looking forward to 2020, we invite professionals of housing enterprises and research institutions to explore the external environment and internal development stage of the real estate market in China, summarize the new characteristics of industry and market operation, and provide different thinking to understand the development of the current real estate market. They are: Liu Tianyan, Vice President and former President of Mainland China, Zhongyuan Real Estate; Yao Yao, Senior Director of Zhongyuan Union Bank; Zhan Jiaqin, Chairman-in-Office of Hunan Real Estate Industry Association; Yang Yuechen, Director of Research and Consulting Department of Beijing, Laifang; Shen Yin, Managing Director of East China District, Gaoli International; and Zhang Yongyue, President of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute.

  刘天旸:开发商整体表现更为理性,抛弃“侥幸”心理,面对资金、政策等带来的市场挑战。房地产企业资金压力空前,现金流回款要求高,整体土地布局上更为贴合中国城市化发展趋势。

Mr. liu: developers as a whole more rational performance, abandon the \"lucky\" mentality, facing capital, policy and other market challenges. The capital pressure of real estate enterprises is unprecedented, the demand for cash return is high, and the overall land layout is more in line with the development trend of urbanization in China.

  姚耀:楼市调控政策有两个特点。第一是“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”,第二是调控政策跟随市场变化及时调整,从“长周期”步入“短周期”。从市场成交来看,2019年出现了“旺季不旺”、淡旺季差异不显著的特点。尤其是不少城市2019年的“金九银十”表现平淡。

Yao yao: property market regulation policy has two characteristics. The first is \"stable land price, stable house price, stable expectation \", the second is that the control policy follows the market change to adjust in time, from\" long period \"to\" short period \". From the market transactions,2019 appeared \"peak season is not prosperous \", the difference in the light season is not significant characteristics. Especially many cities in 2019\" gold nine silver ten \"performance insipid.

  湛稼勤:从时间段来看,特点比较类似,都是在年初行情上涨,年末的两个月市场下跌。不过下跌的原因是不一样的,2019年末下跌的原因是,国家控制资金流入房地产行业,部分大型企业出现资金链紧张的状况,不断开始降价销售,刚开始对拉动项目去化是有效果的,价格低会被抢购,但是时间很快过去,市场还是观望情绪渐浓。

Zhan Jiaqin: from the time period, the characteristics are more similar, are in the beginning of the rise in the market, the end of the two months the market fell. But the reasons for the fall were different, as the state controlled the flow of money into the real estate industry at the end of 2019, some large companies had a tight capital chain, and began to reduce prices, which would have been effective in driving the project degeneration, and low prices would be snapped up, but the market soon passed and the wait-and-see mood grew.

  杨悦晨:越来越多的城市采取了因城施策的房地产调控政策,这是楼市十分明显的一个新特点。一些库存较高、房价波动小的城市相较于一线城市严格限制房价波动而言,政策实施较为灵活。

Yang Yuecheng:More and more cities have adopted the real estate regulation policy based on urban policies, which is an obvious new feature of the housing market. Some cities with high inventory and small house price fluctuation are more flexible than those in first-tier cities.

  《中国经营报》:2019年,全国百强房地产企业业绩增长率显著低于过去两年,行业集中度创下历年新高。您如何看待这一趋势?

《 China Business Daily: In 2019, the performance growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies in China was significantly lower than that of the past two years, with industry concentration hitting a record high in the past year. What do you think of this trend?

  杨悦晨:楼市并不景气,导致房企普遍遇到销售压力,因此成本管理、降低企业杠杆率是大部分房企2019年在解决的问题。大型房企在现金流控制方面做得较好,放慢扩张速度来换取企业更好的发展,而且不少企业在目前的楼市寒冬下有意识进行企业转型,多元化拓展业务,转变开发理念和运营模式,包括存量物业的升级改造。

Yang Yuechen: the property market is not good, resulting in housing enterprises generally encountered sales pressure, so cost management, reduce corporate leverage ratio is the majority of housing enterprises in 2019 in the solution. Large housing enterprises in cash flow control to do better, slow down the pace of expansion in exchange for better development of enterprises, and many enterprises in the current cold winter of the property market consciously carry out enterprise transformation, diversified expansion of business, change development concept and operation mode, including the upgrading of stock property.

  刘天旸:房地产行业的“马太效应”正在不断发酵,业绩增长速度取决于基数。2019年大中房企间的合作更为多元开放,开发销售不再是各企业唯一重视指标,在养老、旅居、教育等各板块均出现了活跃的身影。中小企业则在这场洗礼中,不进则退,艰难求生。

Mr Lau: The \"Matthew effect\" of the real estate industry is fermenting, and the pace of growth depends on the base. The cooperation between large and medium-sized housing enterprises in 2019 is more diversified and open, development and sales is no longer the only enterprise attention to indicators, in the pension, sojourn, education and other sectors have appeared active figure. Small and medium-sized enterprises in this baptism, do not advance or retreat, difficult to survive.

  《中国经营报》:愈加复杂的市场环境中,房地产市场出现“大鱼吃小鱼”的局面。在您看来,中小型房企的生存现状如何?房企并购潮今年是否会延续?

《 China Business Daily: In the increasingly complex market environment, the real estate market has seen a "big fish eat small fish" situation. In your view, the survival of small and medium - sized housing enterprises how? Will the M