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特朗普為何一夜之間收手專家有三個原因特朗普伊朗
2020-01-11 18:16  www.equintos.com

  中新网1月9日电(陈爽)美军基地遭遇伊朗袭击,美国总统特朗普却称,袭击未致美军人伤亡,美国不会动用军队,“准备好拥抱和平”。这与他之前的强硬态度相比,可谓是180度大转弯。

U.S. military bases were attacked by Iran on January 9, but U.S. President Donald Trump said the attack did not cause U.S. military casualties and that the United States would not use its troops to \"be ready to embrace peace.\" That's a 180-degree turn compared to his previous hardline approach.

  北京时间9日下午,中国前驻伊朗大使华黎明接受中新网记者专访,对特朗普态度的转变,以及风云变幻的中东局势做出深度解读。

On the afternoon of the 9th Beijing time, China's former ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, gave an in-depth reading of Trump's shifting attitude and the changing situation in the Middle East.

  虽然美伊之间的矛盾长期存在,但此次两国之所以会爆发如此剧烈的冲突,还是因为美军击杀了伊朗高级将领苏莱曼尼。

Despite the long-standing conflict between the u.s. and iran, this time the two countries have erupted in such a violent conflict, or because u.s. troops killed iran's top general sulaimani.

  苏莱曼尼是伊朗精锐部队“圣城旅”的指挥官,军衔为少将。华黎明介绍称,他是一个特殊人物,官方职位不高,却是伊朗在中东政策的总策划者、指挥者,给美国在中东的利益构成了很大的威胁。

Suleimani is the commander of the \"Al-Quds Brigade\" of the elite Iranian forces, with the rank of Major General. Mr. Hua said he was a special figure, with a low official position but a chief mastermind and commander of Iranian policy in the Middle East, posing a great threat to the interests of the United States in the Middle East.

  华黎明表示,其实,早在奥巴马担任美国总统期间,美国就想要除掉苏莱曼尼,但不敢轻易动手。这次,特朗普“定点清除”苏莱曼尼,可以说是除掉了美国的一个心腹之患。

Mr. Hua said the United States had wanted to get rid of Mr. Suleimani long before Mr. Obama was president of the United States. This time, Trump's \"targeted removal\" of Suleimani is arguably the removal of an American confidant.

  然而,特朗普没有想到,像苏莱曼尼这样一个既有实权,又享有崇高声望人物的死亡,会在伊朗国内引起何种程度的反应。这件事,可以说是“引爆”了伊朗乃至中东地区民众的反美情绪。

However, Trump did not think of the extent to which the death of a man of power and prestige, such as Suleimani, would elicit a reaction at home. This could be said to have \"detonated\" anti-American sentiment in Iran and the Middle East.

  当地时间1月6日,成千上万的伊朗民众走上德黑兰街头,向被美军击杀的高级军官苏莱曼尼表示敬意。图为追悼会上民众高举苏莱曼尼的照片。

Tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran on January 6 to pay their respects to senior U.S. military officer Sergei Suleimani. Photo People holding up a photograph of Suleimani at a memorial service.

  苏莱曼尼的遗体回到伊朗后,数百万民众涌上街头致哀,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在其葬礼上流泪,明确要“强硬复仇”。

After Suleimani's body returned to Iran, millions of people poured into the streets to mourn, and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wept at his funeral, making it clear he wanted \"tough revenge.\"

  华黎明说,美国绝对没有想到,击杀苏莱曼尼,就像“捅了马蜂窝”一样。他说:“在看到伊朗和中东、全世界的反应之后,我看特朗普有点后怕,想缩回去。实际上现在后果已经造成了,所以导致美国现在基本上是往后退的一种形势。”

Mr. Hua said the United States had absolutely no idea that killing Suleimani was like \"stabbing a horseshive \". \"After seeing the reaction of Iran and the Middle East and the world, I'm looking at Trump a little bit scared and wanting to shrink back,\" he said. Now that the consequences have been created, it is essentially a backward situation for the United States.

  当地时间1月4日,两千多人在旧金山市中心参加反战集会,谴责美国总统特朗普下令炸死伊朗将领苏莱曼尼,以和平的方式解决国际争端。中新社记者刘关关摄

On January 4, more than 2,000 people took part in an anti-war rally in downtown San Francisco, condemning U.S. President Donald Trump's order to blow up Iranian general Suleimani and settle international disputes in a peaceful manner. China News Agency Reporter Liu Guan

  与此同时,在美国国内,也有很多民众反对特朗普的行为。事发后,约70个城市爆发抗议游行,美国年轻人因为怕被征兵,挤瘫了兵役局网站。最新民调显示,美国53%成年人不赞同特朗普对伊朗的处理。

At the same time, in the United States, there are many people who oppose Trump's actions. After the incident, protests broke out in about 70 cities, and young Americans collapsed on the military service website for fear of being drafted. The latest poll shows 53 percent of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump's handling of Iran.

  据华黎明介绍,2003年,小布什发动阿富汗和伊拉克战争,花了几万亿美元,数千名美国人死在战场,这对美国年轻人来讲是一场噩梦,很多人觉得这是一场没有理由的战争。

In 2003, when George W. Bush fought the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, spending trillions of dollars and thousands of Americans dying on the battlefield, it was a nightmare for young Americans, and many felt it was a war for no reason, according to Mr. Hua.

  所以,在奥巴马当总统的时候曾经说过,美国士兵的靴子不会踩在别国的领土上,美国不会再派军队到海外去。而这次,很多人担心将再次卷入战争,会让美国的年轻人再到战场上卖命。

So, as mr obama once said when he was president, the boots of american soldiers would not be trampled on the territory of another country, and america would not send troops overseas. And this time, many fear that the war will be re-involved, and that America's young people will return to the battlefield.

  华黎明分析称,总体来说,特朗普本是想通过采取先发制人的行动,保护美国外交机构和美国海外公民的生命安全和利益,来吸引选票,提高他连任美国总统的可能性。

Mr. Trump, in general, has sought to attract votes and raise the odds of his re-election as president by taking pre-emptive action to protect the lives and interests of U.S. diplomatic agencies and U.S. citizens abroad, according to Mr. Hua.

  事实上,苏莱曼尼之死震动了全球——油价、金价迅速上涨,美股下跌。华黎明认为,这可能出乎了特朗普的意料,对他来说是很重要的刺激,下一步的措施可能要理智一点。

Indeed, the death of Suleimani has shaken the world – oil and gold prices have risen rapidly and US stocks have fallen. Mr. Hua believes that this may have been a surprise to Mr. Trump and an important stimulus for him, and that the next step may be to be more rational.

  华黎明进一步解释说,虽然美国现在的石油产量基本上能够自给,不再需要从中东进口,但中东地区拥有世界石油的定价权。中东形势一旦发生变化,世界油价也会随之变化。

Mr. Hua further explained that while the U.S. is now largely self-sufficient in oil production and no longer needs to import from the Middle East, the region has pricing power over world oil. Once things change in the Middle East, so will world oil prices.

  美国人非常关心油价,“开车到加油站去加油,这一公升的油油价涨了,特朗普的选票就没有了”,这是特朗普非常不愿意看到的。

Americans are so concerned about the price of oil that \"driving to the gas station to refuel, this liter of oil has gone up and Trump's vote has gone,\" something Trump is very reluctant to see.

  美国在中东地区的盟友沙特,与伊朗一直是敌对关系,但华黎明认为,沙特绝不愿意看到美国和伊朗大战起来。因为如果发生大规模战争,沙特很可能首当其冲。

U.S. ally in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, has been a hostile relationship with Iran, but Mr. Hua believes Saudi Arabia will never want to see a war between the United States and Iran. Because if there is a massive war, Saudi Arabia is likely to bear the brunt.

  其他美国盟友也不愿看到紧张局势继续升级。法国外长称必须制止“暴力循环”、德国试图缓解当前局势、日本呼吁以外交手段解决问题、北约宣布部分撤军……

Other U.S. allies are also reluctant to see tensions continue to escalate. France's foreign minister said it must stop the \"cycle of violence \", germany's attempts to ease the situation, japan's calls for a diplomatic solution, and nato's announcement of a partial withdrawal.

  当地时间1月8日,美国总统特朗普在白宫发表电视讲话。图为纽约时代广场的电视直播特朗普电视讲话。中新社记者廖攀摄

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on television at the White House on January 8, local time. Photo A live television broadcast of Trump's televised speech in Times Square, New York. China News Agency Correspondent Liao Pan

  华黎明分析称,2015年伊核协议的签订,对美国在欧洲的盟国来说是十分重要的外交成果。欧洲国家非常希望可以重返伊朗这个大市场,迫切想同伊朗改善关系。但这份协议却被特朗普撕毁了。

The 2015 iraqi nuclear deal was a very important diplomatic achievement for america's allies in europe, according to hualiming's analysis. European countries are keen to return to Iran, the big market, and are keen to improve relations with Iran. But the deal was torn down by Trump.

  不仅如此,从2018年下半年开始,美国开始对伊朗实行严厉的制裁,而且进行长臂管辖,欧洲的公司如果同伊朗发生贸易关系,美国都要予以制裁。所以美欧在这个问题上也有所分歧。

Moreover, from the second half of 2018, the United States began to impose severe sanctions on Iran, and long-armed jurisdiction, and the United States will impose sanctions if European companies have trade relations with Iran. So America and Europe are also divided on this issue.

  内有民众反对、外有伊朗“报复”、盟友也并不支持,甚至可能影响美国总统大选选情……如此看来,美伊冲突似乎并未给特朗普带来足够多的好处,特朗普会转变态度、缓和局势也就不足为奇了。(完)

There is popular opposition, there is Iran's \"revenge,\" allies do not support, and may even affect the election of the United States presidential election... So it doesn't seem that the US-Iranian conflict has done Trump enough good, and it's no surprise that Trump will shift his attitude and ease the situation. (end)