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邢自强老百姓基本不存钱了,90后消费方式非常接近西方
2020-01-07 23:42  www.equintos.com

1月4日-5日,2020中国首席经济学家论坛在上海召开。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在会上表示,很多人在辩论中国是否要保6,但更重要的是未来五到十年中国的挑战,是过去二十年支撑增长的人口红利和全球化红利的终结和逆转。

January 4-5,2020 China's chief economist forum in Shanghai. Xing Ziqiang, China's chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said at the meeting that many people were debating whether China wanted to protect six, but more importantly, the challenge for China over the next five to 10 years was the end and reversal of the demographic and globalisation dividends that have underpinned growth over the past two decades.

“首先我们的老百姓已经基本上不存钱了,新一代的80后、90后居民消费模式、生活模式很接近西方,所以居民储蓄率下降,居民负债率迅速提高。这个过程中政府负债随着养老负担进一步提高,也有上升的可能性。但是优势就在于中国过去资本市场比较大了,债市股市是全球前三,但不怎么开放。”邢自强说。

\"First of all, our people have basically no money to save, and the new generation of post-80s and post-90s residents'consumption patterns and living patterns are very close to the West, so the savings rate of residents has fallen and the debt ratio of residents has increased rapidly. In the process, government debt is likely to rise as the burden on the elderly grows. But the advantage is that China's capital markets used to be bigger, and the bond market is the world's top three, but not very open. Xing Ziqiang said.

他指出,如果我们现在提供更多的改革,更加透明的监管,更加与国际接轨的交易制度、对冲工具,让外资进来,预计光在股权市场每年就有接近一千亿美元的净流入,债权市场是另外一千亿美元,足以弥补将来出现的经常账户的利差,使国际收支基本平衡。

'If we now provide more reforms, more transparent regulation, more international trading systems, hedging tools, and allowing foreign investment to come in, we expect a net annual inflow of nearly $100 billion in equity markets alone, and the debt market is another $100 billion, enough to make up for future current account spreads and to balance the balance of payments,' he said.

他同时指出,还有一块很重要的是,当我们吸引更多的外资流入,特别是美国资本的流入,买中国债券的时候,金融脱钩实际上就成了伪命题。今年以来中国整体国债市场外资流入接近700亿美元,这个过程中53%是美资机构购买,金融脱钩没有发生,进一步的挂钩,这也是金融市场进一步开放的好处。

At the same time, he points out, it is also important that when we attract more foreign capital inflows, especially from the US, to buy Chinese bonds, financial decoupling is actually a bogus proposition. Since the beginning of the year,53 per cent of the total chinese treasury bond market has flowed close to $70bn, a process in which u.s.-funded institutions have bought and financial decoupling has not taken place.

他认为,面对国内市场人口老龄化,要解决将来养老系统的入不敷出的缺口,还是要盘活国有资产,中国跟希腊、意大利比起来,有大量的国有股权和资产,如果可以市场化改革,提升经营效率和激励机制,它产生的红利和资产回报足以去弥补我们将来的人口老龄化的负债。

In the face of an aging population in the domestic market, he said, to address the future gap in the pension system, or to revitalize state-owned assets, China, compared with Greece and Italy, has a large number of state-owned shares and assets, and if market-oriented reforms can improve business efficiency and incentives, it will generate enough dividends and asset returns to cover the liabilities of our aging population in the future.

邢自强认为,中国未来五年最大的挑战是双重的,是国内人口老龄化和海外逆全球化脱钩,如果我们进行全球化的策略,进行整个科技产业链的鼓励创新,以及下一阶段人民币资产国际化,金融市场开放进入快车道,可能在未来的城市,未来的人民币,以及未来的科技产业链走出不一样的道路。(编辑/郑青春)

Xing Ziqiang believes that China's biggest challenge in the next five years is the dual, is the domestic population aging and the overseas reverse globalization decoupling, if we carry on the globalization strategy, carries on the entire science and technology industry chain encouragement innovation, and the next stage RMB assets internationalization, the financial market opening into the fast lane, may be in the future city, the future RMB, and the future science and technology industry chain out of the different road. (Editor\/Chung)