January 4-5,2020 China's chief economist forum in Shanghai. Xing Ziqiang, China's chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said at the meeting that many people were debating whether China wanted to protect six, but more importantly, the challenge for China over the next five to 10 years was the end and reversal of the demographic and globalisation dividends that have underpinned growth over the past two decades.
\"First of all, our people have basically no money to save, and the new generation of post-80s and post-90s residents'consumption patterns and living patterns are very close to the West, so the savings rate of residents has fallen and the debt ratio of residents has increased rapidly. In the process, government debt is likely to rise as the burden on the elderly grows. But the advantage is that China's capital markets used to be bigger, and the bond market is the world's top three, but not very open. Xing Ziqiang said.
'If we now provide more reforms, more transparent regulation, more international trading systems, hedging tools, and allowing foreign investment to come in, we expect a net annual inflow of nearly $100 billion in equity markets alone, and the debt market is another $100 billion, enough to make up for future current account spreads and to balance the balance of payments,' he said.
At the same time, he points out, it is also important that when we attract more foreign capital inflows, especially from the US, to buy Chinese bonds, financial decoupling is actually a bogus proposition. Since the beginning of the year,53 per cent of the total chinese treasury bond market has flowed close to $70bn, a process in which u.s.-funded institutions have bought and financial decoupling has not taken place.
In the face of an aging population in the domestic market, he said, to address the future gap in the pension system, or to revitalize state-owned assets, China, compared with Greece and Italy, has a large number of state-owned shares and assets, and if market-oriented reforms can improve business efficiency and incentives, it will generate enough dividends and asset returns to cover the liabilities of our aging population in the future.
Xing Ziqiang believes that China's biggest challenge in the next five years is the dual, is the domestic population aging and the overseas reverse globalization decoupling, if we carry on the globalization strategy, carries on the entire science and technology industry chain encouragement innovation, and the next stage RMB assets internationalization, the financial market opening into the fast lane, may be in the future city, the future RMB, and the future science and technology industry chain out of the different road. (Editor\/Chung)